Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 17.517470 21.168350 25.215909 30.011755 35.513747 41.602877 48.824876
2025-06-01 11.881872 16.528294 22.249601 29.704139 39.042807 50.232925 64.521440
2025-06-08 8.438708 13.196571 19.574691 28.520368 40.486578 55.668544 76.077264
2025-06-15 6.827815 11.769891 18.869040 29.419653 44.256364 63.896437 91.302568
2025-06-22 5.214468 9.924701 17.172737 28.564531 45.356374 68.470859 101.833199
2025-06-29 4.422126 9.157782 16.875931 29.571166 48.997719 76.566949 117.404617
2025-07-06 3.300568 7.563436 14.996481 27.876479 48.429693 78.593939 124.551797
2025-07-13 2.863817 7.101874 14.883236 28.901008 51.966292 86.645487 140.550605
2025-07-20 2.472211 6.633003 14.668813 29.694817 55.145022 94.281592 156.248921
2025-07-27 2.186424 6.314727 14.667374 30.819913 58.890644 102.919113 173.761119
2025-08-03 1.904758 5.935614 14.484973 31.580722 62.049846 110.766647 190.374212
2025-08-10 1.555393 5.302255 13.695845 31.130938 63.095252 115.300653 202.069623
2025-08-17 1.190638 4.548284 12.596907 30.102959 63.293758 118.871737 213.087154
2025-08-24 0.943693 4.029056 11.917185 29.823106 64.827622 124.772885 228.193311
2025-08-31 0.699785 3.408986 10.869295 28.636869 64.564200 127.611320 238.463537
2025-09-07 0.601067 3.221317 10.824040 29.539160 68.258290 137.325115 260.298466
2025-09-14 0.452363 2.776275 10.024301 28.681247 68.473458 140.999696 272.271918
2025-09-21 0.392923 2.652372 10.055899 29.691170 72.419323 151.399114 295.882349
2025-09-28 0.272133 2.179487 8.989335 27.990934 70.752866 151.655980 302.269150
2025-10-05 0.237150 2.095537 9.055121 29.018826 74.762610 162.382805 327.011231
2025-10-12 0.202476 1.990058 9.030654 29.815224 78.330125 172.437236 350.916658
2025-10-19 0.178078 1.927695 9.133217 30.943967 82.674357 184.108979 378.027819
2025-10-26 0.151512 1.830830 9.098201 31.707227 86.267831 194.504116 403.204868